Central National Models Are Useless

Centralised national models for COVID-19 infections and deaths are useless for the general public. Leaking them achieves one thing only: more noise for the media outlets to peddle. More money for the newspapers, who are struggling. They serve nobody else.

Remember those far-fetched models in the spring that led to lockdown? All of them were wrong. 100%. This new model is no different. Even the authors state clearly that it is not a prediction. The error margins on every single figure make it impossible to use as a prediction. The assumptions are only assumptions, and are usually wrong. Nobody could have predicted how hard it would be to persuade people to return to offices and schools. Nobody would have predicted almost anything that actually happened in 2020, if you had asked them on 1st February, even though COVID-19 was rife in China and spreading in Italy by then.

Do yourself a favour. Unplug from any news of models or predictions. Focus on your own situation, keep the plates spinning, send the kids to school and continue working from home until your employer realises the office is dead. Focus. That is the only solution.

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53954492

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